California voters will head to the polls in one week – or continue to return their mail-in ballots as the June primary draws near.
There are many races across all levels of government worth paying attention to in the Central Valley, with around a dozen or so slated to set the stage for how the November election will shake out.
Here’s a look at the races The Sun is paying close attention to, with our eyes pointed to November:
California’s 22nd Congressional District – Valadao vs. …?
- Millions of dollars have been spent in the high-profile race, with the 22nd district one of five targeted by Democrats to flip through Proposition 50. But Rep. David Valadao’s (R–Hanford) staying power in a district that on paper he should never really win, isn’t up for debate right now. That question will be answered in November.
- At present is the battle between establishment Democrats backing Asm. Jasmeet Bains (D–Delano) and the progressive left wing backing Visalia Unified Trustee Randy Villegas.
- The latest campaign finance filings with the Federal Election Commission reveals Villegas to wield more financial might. The school board member has raised nearly $1.75 million throughout his entire campaign and has spent over $1.4 million of it. On the other hand, Bains has raised $1.3 million and has spent roughly $940,000 throughout the cycle.
- Yet Bains now has the official backing of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), the campaign arm of House Democrats.
- Looking forward to November, Democrats will weigh in over the next week on who they think has the best shot to oust the Hanford dairy farmer.
Senate District 14 – Esmeralda vs. Esmeralda
- All financial metrics and simple campaign momentum point to Asm. Esmeralda Soria (D–Fresno) easily moving on in the June primary to position herself to succeed Sen. Anna Caballero (D–Merced) in November.
- Soria is dominating the financial picture, with nearly $900,000 in her war chest as she looks ahead to November. She has raised over $600,000 in 2026 alone and has spent over $360,000 to start the year. Hurtado’s fundraising activities have been the opposite: $9,300 raised this year with $10,191.91 in the bank. She posted a video on Facebook last week showing some campaign billboards going up across the 14th district, but outside of that, her media presence has been little to none. Hurtado’s financial state has been so insignificant, that she was sued by her campaign consultant for not paying an $8,000 bill.
- All signs point to Soria and Republican Merced City Councilman Darin DuPont advancing to November, but the race presents an interesting barometer on if voters want the leftist-backed Hurtado or the more establishment pick in Soria, who herself once pitched herself as the progressive alternative to Rep. Jim Costa (D–Fresno) in her failed Congressional bid six years ago.
- Hurtado’s candidacy is buoyed by a pair of rival factions among Valley Democrats. She’s picked up the backing of her sister, Sen. Melissa Hurtado (D–Bakersfield), and outgoing Asm. Joaquin Arambula (D–Fresno) and his chosen successor, nonprofit CEO and Assembly contender Sandra Celedon.
- Will Hurtado’s progressive backers be enough to put up a challenge to the financial might that Soria boasts?
AD 31 – Perea vs. …?
- Fresno City Councilwoman Annalisa Perea shows some similarities to Soria. While she owns a healthy fundraising lead over Celedon – who was hand-picked by Arambula to succeed him in the 31st district – she faces a slightly tougher battle than her Fresno City Council predecessor. Perea has raised around $300,000 this year, roughly double what Celedon brought in.
- But the financial outlook explodes when taking into account what outside groups have spent in the race. Perea is benefitting from $1.94 million in outside spending to support her move from Fresno to Sacramento.
- That number has increased by around $400,000 in the last week alone. Her largest benefactor is California Leads, a super PAC backed by big tech, which has spent $960,000 on her behalf. Celedon has only enjoyed around $130,000 in outside spending to support her in 2026, roughly 15 times less than the money backing Perea.
- The other candidate in the race is James Polsgrove, who should take the Republican votes across the district, begging the question on if the $2 million in spending to support Perea will translate into her cruising into a Republican-Democratic runoff in November.
AD 35 – Gonzales vs. …?
- Bakersfield City Councilman Andrae Gonzales is the odds-on favorite to succeed Bains in the Assembly, with the support of Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas, more than two dozen state lawmakers and the California Democratic Party.
- Gonzales has raised money in line with his establishment support, bringing in nearly $290,000 this year, while fellow Democrat Ana Palacio has raised $73,000. Their current cash-on-hand total comes in much closer – $97,600 for Gonzales and $82,500 for Palacio.
- The real story in the district, though, is the outside spending. Outside groups have spent over $2.4 million in support of Gonzales and roughly $400,000 in support of Palacio. While outside groups have also spent $500,000 in opposition of Gonzales, Palacio also faces nearly $750,000 in money spent against her by outside organizations.
- The main question in the race centers on if the outside spending will be enough to push Gonzales through to face Republican McFarland Mayor Saul Ayon, or if Palacio will find enough support at the ballot box to make it to November.
Merced County Supervisor
- Two incumbent supervisors face challengers: District 3 Supervisor Daron McDaniel and District 5 Supervisor Scott Silveira.
- McDaniel is running for his fourth term in office and faces a challenger backed by many law enforcement groups in the county: Luis Lara.
- Lara is a former California Highway Patrol officer who received the endorsement of the Merced County Deputy Sheriff’s Association last August. He also has the support of Rep. Adam Gray (D–Merced) and Asm. Esmeralda Soria (D–Fresno).
- Silveira is running for this third term in office and faces political newcomer Miguel Alejandre.
- Alejandre is a Los Banos businessman who is not accepting any donations. Campaign finance filings show that he has raised $3,715.15 throughout his campaign – all from his own pockets.
Madera County Supervisors
- District 5 Supervisor Bobby Macaulay is foregoing another term in office, setting up the most hotly-contested race among the three open seats.
- Enter Frank Bigelow, the former Assemblyman who also served on the Board of Supervisors from 1998 to 2012. Bigelow can capture the seat outright if he secures a majority of the vote next week. Yosemite Unified Trustee Brook Allen, realtor Melanie Barker and Mark Reed – who previously ran against Macaulay – are the other three candidates vying for the seat.
- Unsurprisingly, Bigelow is the fundraising leader, with over $37,000 in the bank as of April 18. Allen reported having a negative cash balance at the same date, and Reed’s cash total stood at $2,000 as of May 16. Barker did not file a campaign finance report with the county.
- Outside of the District 5 race, farmers afflicted by the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) have shelled out the cash to back challengers in Districts 1 and 2 and Reed in District 5.
- Supervisor Jordan Wamhoff is running for reelection against realtor and pardoned Jan. 6 Capitol rioter Benjamin Martin. Martin, who has been supported by the California United Water Coalition PAC, reported a zeroed-out bank account on May 16, while Wamhoff boasts a six-figure advantage.
- The PAC is also backing Chowchilla City Councilman John Chavez to challenge Supervisor David Rogers in District 2. The last campaign finance report filed by Rogers showed he had nearly $70,000 in the bank at the end of last year. Chavez does not have a campaign finance report filed with the county.
Fresno County Supervisors
- Supervisors Buddy Mendes and Brian Pacheco are leaving their seats, potentially leaving the county without any farmers on the board.
- It’s a retirement from politics for Mendes, although it means he’ll be back to working on his farm full-time without having to make the trip from Riverdale to downtown Fresno. Pacheco exits the county to run for the Assembly in District 27, the seat that Soria is vacating for her Senate run.
- Mendes has endorsed former Fresno County Sheriff Margaret Mims as his successor in District 4.
- With roughly $185,000 in her war chest, the question in the race is if any of the other four candidates – Selma Unified Trustee Nick Sahota, Parlier Mayor Alma Beltran, Huron Mayor Rey Leon and Charlie Soto – can break through and mount a challenge. Leon has the most cash on hand of the other candidates at $12,200.
- Fresno City Councilman Mike Karbassi boasts the most financial might in the District 1 race, reporting $80,900 in the bank as of May 16.
- West Hills Community College District Trustee Omar Hernandez appears to be in the best position to challenge Karbassi, with around $30,000 in the bank, followed by Kerman Mayor Maria Pacheco with $13,100 in the bank.
- Firebaugh City Councilman Felipe Perez, Lupe Flores and Eric Payne all have less than $1,000 in the bank.
- A pair of independent committees backed by the California Alliance of Family Owned Businesses have poured in a collective $300,000 to support Mims and Karbassi.
Tulare County – Valero vs. …?
- Tulare County Supervisor Eddie Valero is running for his third term in office and is gearing up to face either Woodlake Mayor Rudy Mendoza or Ian Bakke.
- Based on campaign finance filings, Valero’s likely November challenger – if he doesn’t win outright in June – could be Bakke.
- Bakke reported having $28,600 in the bank on May 16, while Mendoza reported a negative cash balance in his last filing.
Kings County – Who’s replacing Neves?
- Supervisor Joe Neves is retiring from the board after representing District 1 since he was first elected in 1994.
- Three candidates are lined up to replace Kings County’s longest-serving supervisor: Garrett Gilcrease, Stefanie Silveira Chavez and Martin Chavez.
- Gilcrease has secured key endorsements – starting with Neves – along with Rusty Robinson, the Kings County Farm Bureau, Congressman Vince Fong (R-Bakersfield), and Asms. Alexandra Macedo (R-Tulare) and David Tangipa (R-Clovis).
- Martin Chavez has boasted the backing of California gubernatorial contender Steve Hilton in recent weeks.
- Gilcrease and Chavez have put up nearly identical fundraising totals, both raising roughly $60,000 this year and both with around $38,000 left in the bank, as of May 16. Chavez, who challenged Neves in 2022 with the backing of water giant John Vidovich, is again a key beneficiary of the farming magnate courtesy of $25,000 in campaign support.
- Silveira Chavez has raised around $26,000 this year and reported having $6,400 in the bank.
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